NeISS: National e-Infrastructure for Social Simulation
Investigators
Principal Investigator is Prof. Mark Birkin, University of Leeds. For list of partners, see below.
Web Link
Scientific and Technical Objectives
See press release below.
Progress and Publications
Abstract submitted to AHM 2009 http://www.grids.ac.uk/NWGrid/neiss_ahm_2009.pdf
M.H. Birkin, R. Procter, R.J. Allan, S. Bechhofer, I. Buchan, C. Goble, A. Hudson-Smith, P. Lambert, D. de Roure, R. Sinnott The Elements of a Computational Infrastructure for Social Simulation Phil. Trans. Roy. Soc. special edition, proceedings of AHM2009 (2010, in press)
Press Release 18/6/2009
Virtual world predicts dire future for British cities
A SimCity like computer simulation which enables social scientists to understand how real life populations react to change has predicted a depressing future for British cities by the year 2031.
Researchers at the universities of Leeds and Manchester used new, powerful simulation software to create a virtual Leeds, revealing a worrying picture of how the city's congestion and deprivation could mushroom over 30 years.
Researchers from the MoSeS project, part of the ESRC funded National Centre for e-Social Science (NCeSS) coordinated by University of Manchester, also showed how co-dependent couples (two adults in a single household, both aged over 65) become hugely prevalent across the Yorkshire City by 2031.
A new £1.4 million project at NCeSS funded by the Joint Information Systems Committee (JISC) will take the MoSeS project a stage further by creating video simulation for any British city. It was launched in April 2009.
According to geographer and project leader Prof. Mark Birkin from the University of Leeds, the worrying scenario for Leeds would almost certainly be repeated across the United Kingdom.
Among the data produced by MoSeS is a series of maps showing most of Leeds in gridlock by 2031.
Whereas citizens defined as "deprived" - people with poor housing, health, and access to transport - are currently concentrated in the centre of Leeds, the problems could engulf a third of the city by 2031.
The simulation also found that contrary to the claims of some commentators, the ghetto-isation of ethnic groups is decreasing - dispersing from central locations to an even spread across the whole city by 2031.
Prof. Birkin said: I think these trends are very likely to be repeated across the UK - but our task now is to prove it conclusively. Our new project, the National e-Infrastructure for Social Simulation (NeISS), will do just that.
He added: Ne-ISS means planners have the potential to use a real life version of "SimCity" to test the consequences of their policies. It uses data from censuses, the British Household Panel Survey, birth and death rates from ONS and the Health Survey for England and makes realistic assumptions about demographic patterns at certain intervals over the next 30 years. We are confident that Ne-ISS will provide valuable material for planners in local authorities across the UK. They will be able to use the tools to look a range of issues - including, for example, crime.
Prof. Rob Procter from the University of Manchester said: The Ne-ISS project will make social simulation tools available for planners and policy makers to use as part of the normal course of their work. In this way, Ne-ISS could have a major impact: if planners and policy makers were able to rigorously compare the potential impacts of different policies and decisions - it would surely improve the quality of their work. For this to be achieved, the Ne-ISS project team must work closely with users from start to finish. The aim is to build up a community of users who can contribute to the development of these tools and thereby ensure that their potential is fully realised. In the longer term, we anticipate that Ne-ISS will provide a blueprint for the provision of social simulation tools to planners and policy makers on a European scale.
NeISS will build on grid infrastructure provided by the NGS, North West Grid and White Rose Grid.
Note for Editors
1) List of project partners:
- Centre for Spatial Analysis and Policy, University of Leeds
- National Centre for e-Social Science, University of Manchester
- STFC, Daresbury Laboratory
- National e-Science Centre, University of Glasgow
- Information Management Group, University of Manchester
- OMII-UK, University of Southampton
- Department of Applied Social Science, University of Stirling
- Centre for Applied Spatial Analysis, University College London
2) Maps are currently available showing simulation for:
- The Elderly
- Co-dependent couples
- Limiting long-term illness
- Ethnicity
- Deprived
3) For media enquiries contact:
Mike Addelman Media Relations Officer Faculty of Humanities The University of Manchester 0161 275 0790 07717 881 567 michael.addelman@manchester.ac.uk